When you look at approval ratings versus voting plans, the numbers don’t seem to add up

March 28 – With this November’s presidential election looking like it will be a repeat of 2020, with Donald Trump and Joe Biden battling it out yet again, a lot of analysts are discussing what could happen. 

When you boil it down to the numbers, it seems a little off. 

Gurnal Scott of Fox News said, “44 years ago Ronald Reagan debated Jimmy Carter for four years and asked are you better off than you were four years ago? This year the answer for 52% of respondents is no. Only 22% say yes. 26% of voters say the economy is good. Not much more, 38% don’t like how President Biden is handling it. Looking at the presidential race head to head, former President Trump has an edge over President Biden: 50 to 45%. More than seven months before Election Day.”

Pat Ryan of NewsTalk 103.7FM pointed out, “It’s right in front of everybody’s eyes, yet there are just those tried and true, hardcore left Democrats that don’t care what’s right in front of them, they’ll hold their nose and go for Joe.” 

Attorney Clint Barkdoll said, “This is the problem these candidates are going to have because there’s about 40% of the electorate on each side that are just baked in, they’re going to vote for whoever the candidate is, if there’s an R or a D next to their name. The trick is in a swing state like this, you’ve really got to figure out a way to appeal to that 15 to 20% in the middle that’s open to going either way.”

Michele Jansen of NewsTalk 103.7FM added, “Besides the Independent voters, which is very important, it’s all about turnout and enthusiasm and if you don’t have the turnout and enthusiasm including the enthusiasm to harvest votes, and I mean legally, through this idiotic mail-in system that we stupidly embraced a couple years ago, if you don’t have the enthusiasm to do that, you’re going to lose. You’re going to lose.” 

Barkdoll said, “It’s good advice. Here’s the other thread to this, our friend Berwood Yost from Franklin and Marshall that does that polling, he did a great analysis last week looking at that census data that we talked about, how south central and southeastern Pennsylvania, these are the fastest growing areas of the state. Well Berwood did some analysis that the counties that are losing population are largely Biden counties that voted for Biden in 2020. The growing counties are largely counties that voted for Trump in 2020. But the caveat is a lot of this growth and we know here locally, we’re getting a lot of new people from the Frederick, DC, Baltimore area. Odds are those people might be registered Independents. There could be of course Republicans and Democrats in that mix, but we know that statewide Independents are the fastest growing voter registration demographic, far eclipsing the Republicans and the Democrats. So these candidates, yes, they need to close the enthusiasm gap, but they need to do something to appeal to those voters.”