The Race Tightens

10 May 2022- A new Trafalgar Group poll has put Oz, Barnette and McCormick neck and neck for PA residents. The group, made famous in 2016 after successfully predicting Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton, has made itself known for its unique but very successful polling methodology. Trafalgar Group’s founder Robert Cahaly sat down with News Talk 1037FM’s Political Vibe show to talk about the group’s methodology and a look into PA Politics.

The new poll gives Dr. Mehmet Oz a slim lead with 24.5% of respondents saying they would vote for him. Right behind him, however, is a surging Kathy Barnette at 23.2% of the vote share and hedge fund manager David McCormick sliding to 21.6% of vote shares. This comes after April’s polling from Trafalgar indicated a lessening of undecided voters and a rise in the popularity of Kathy Barnette. 

Oz, the Trump endorsed candidate, recently had a rally for him in Greensburg, PA to push voters to vote for him. While a sizable portion of the supporters who turned out to the rain soaked Westmoreland County Fairgrounds were initially unreceptive of Oz, the booing generally subsided as the night went on. Trump’s appointment has been successful 55/55 times this primary season and he went on to make a large point of that in his hour long speech. Although the preceding speeches and Trump seemed to subside a large amount of warriness to Oz, many candidates are flocking to his competition.

Kathy Barnette was seen by some as a long shot for much of her campaign but has recently shot to the hearts and minds of a lot of Pennsylvania voters. As far back as February the contest seemed like a two dog race, according to Trafalgar. Barnette was polling at 8.9% with Oz and McCormick at 27% and 15% respectively. That poll, according to Trafalgar, had 21.6% of voters undecided. Since then Barnette has risen all the way up to 23.2%, within the margin of error of Oz. McCormick, too, has risen in the polls from April to May, going from 19.7% to 21.6% but not enough to best Barnette. 

Dr. Oz’s failure to win undecided voters and the wearing off of his name recognition may be at fault for this fall in the polls. With three candidates seemingly running away with the race, Trump’s perfect record in the 2022 primaries may be in jeopardy. 
A distant fourth in the polling was perennial candidate Jeff Bartos and former Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands all the way down at 7.2% and 6.5% respectively. The full poll can be found here on the Trafalgar Group’s website.