The Big Talk takes a look at the market and California’s governor recall

CHAMBERSBURG – Every weekday morning on First News, the local – live morning radio information show with Pat Ryan and Michele Jansen features the big talk topics and opinion from local Attorney Clint Barkdoll.

On September 13, the Big Talk discussed the record highs in the market indexes and the recall vote of Governor Gavin Newsom in California.

The record earnings in the market can’t keep going

It’s a little unreal how well the economy has been doing. All of these companies are reporting record earnings. The major indexes have seen record highs month after month.

Analysts are warning this can’t keep going like this.

Some of the thinking is as you get into the fourth quarter, the hedge funds, mutual funds may start liquidating their positions to lock in those gains for the year and when that happens, the market will naturally decline.

On top of that, the proposals regarding tax increases and reforms on corporate taxes, it’s a classic ingredient for the market to have some kind of a correction.

The question is how much of a correction? Analysts are predicting anywhere from a 10% to 20% correction.

Ryan said, “You put that together with Joe Biden on the southern border and cyber security and his mess in Afghanistan, he really has quite the mess all over his hands. You put that one on top and I think you all but seal the deal for the midterms.”

Barkdoll said, “The Republicans very likely will regain control of the House and the Senate next year. Anything can happen, but as history would show, even if there would be a popular president in office — and Biden is not popular right now. His approval ratings are in the low 40s. The Republicans are very well-positioned to gain seats in the House and the Senate and both of those Chambers are almost tied as it is, so it’s not going to take a whole lot of gains for them to win back control.”

Could California recall Newsom and replace him with a Republican?

The state of California can recall governors. It’s been law since 1911. In order for it to happen, a recall has to make it to the ballot. The opponent would need more than 1.5 million signatures to get it to the ballot box.

That’s happened with Governor Gavin Newsom.

Ballots were mailed to 22 million registered voters in California last month. They were asked should Newsom be recalled? And if so, who should replace him?

The state will certify results by October 22, but tomorrow is technically the “election” day.

If the majority of people say he should be recalled, the person with the highest votes from the second question would then take over as governor — at least until the end of Newsom’s term, which is only about a year.

Biden is in California campaigning with Newsom. They say about a third of the votes have already been cast through early voting.

It appears that Newsom has pulled ahead, but it’s very very close.

A leader in the replacement for Newsom is Larry Elder, a radio talkshow host.

If Newsom is recalled and someone like Elder ends up being elected governor, politically, it’s an earthquake.

Barkdoll said, “It’s off the charts. California, this is one of the more liberal states in the country and the idea that they would recall their governor, replace him with a Republican, that certainly would be a bellwether, but we’ll see. Going into Wednesday morning we should have some final numbers on this.”

California has done this before, so there’s a history there. Newsom and Democrats are taking this very seriously.

Jansen said, “They’re trying to make it a referendum between Trump and Newsom, which is ridiculous, but Larry Elder being in it is helping them make that case because they’re just jumping on his conservative bona fides. It’s kind of ridiculous if California and the polls they’ve showed before that people are sick of the way it’s being run, if they’d be smart and do this shake-up, whoever’s going to be in there is only going to be in there for what, a year? Until the next election, so it’s not like if they’re so afraid somebody like Larry Elder could do so much damage, he’s not going to have a lot of time anyway, but they’re trying to effectively just use the polarization in our country against it. You’re right, it would be a shake-up and an earthquake if it would happen, but they’re going to argue that if Newsom stays in, it’s some kind of bellwether. No it’s not. Not with the money and all the things we know are happening. I mean, people can print their own ballots in California, for heaven sakes and we’ve already seen examples of some shenanigans going on as far as the mail-in voting. No. There’s no bellwether if Newsom stays in office, but they’re going to, I’m afraid, try to say that it is. They’re saying he’s going to have a mandate if he stays in. That’s absurd.”

The campaign in the last week has become the pro-mask, pro-vaccine people versus the anti-mandate people.

Newsom is campaigning for vaccines and masks. Elder is campaigning on the pro-freedom standpoint.

Barkdoll said, “California is such a strange place politically. There are dozens and dozens of candidates on that recall ballot. Now unquestionably, Elder is going to emerge as the frontrunner.”

But because of all the other candidates, it’s really anybody’s game.