Have murder rates really declined this year? 

December 29 – According to Datalytics, the United States has seen one of the largest one-year declines in the murder rate on record. 

Apparently there has been a 12.8 percent decline nationwide, including cities such as New York, Chicago, LA and Detroit. 

Pat Ryan of NewsTalk 103.7FM noted, “I don’t know how they’re parsing the numbers.”

Michele Jansen of NewsTalk 103.7FM pointed out, “I’m sorry. I just have to remind everybody of Mark Twain’s comment about there’s lies, damned lies, and then there’s statistics. One year declined from one of the highest years. It’s just like COVID, oh, we’ve got so many new jobs. No, COVID went away and Jobs came back. It was year over year over a long period of time and things are not getting that much better.” 

In addition, the FBI is also reporting that violent crime in general is declining as well. 

Ryan asked, “Where is the truth when you hear the mainstream media and how dependable they are without digging into the cross tabs?”

Attorney Clint Barkdoll said, “The key is you must look at baselines, baselines, baselines. This is year over year. So you look at ‘21 and ’22, near all time record high violent crime levels in the US. Naturally those numbers should be declining at some point. So at some level, this is good news. I mean for 2023 violent crime rates are going to show a record statistical decline compared to 2022 but again, you need to put it context, 2022 was almost a record high in violent crimes, and if you look at the big arch of 10, 20 years, for example, violent crime is still very high in the US compared to where it has been historically. It is good that it’s showing a downturn in 2023, but historically, it’s still at a very high level.”

Jansen asked, “Does anybody want to make a prediction for 2024? I worry.”

Ryan said, “Mortgage rates go down, gas prices go down, the world calms down and just in time for…”

“…a fair and free election,” Jansen concluded. 

Barkdoll added, “One other point on this crime statistic, so the key here violent crime is decreasing in 2023 compared to 2022, but you get down into those numbers, other types of what are not considered violent crime have gone through the roof. Carjackings are hitting all time highs in cities all over the country. That’s not considered a quote unquote, violent crime. So again, when you look at some of the non violent crime numbers, those are actually showing big spikes for 2023.”

Ryan said, “It’s amazing that a carjacking is not considered a violent crime when you see some of these thugs that they punch into the window, they drag people out of the car, throw you on the ground and drive away with the car. There’s a terrible story of an elderly woman who was tied up in her seatbelt and gets dragged blocks before dying. So that doesn’t count as a violent crime?”

Barkdoll said, “I think this national group that looks at this, a violent crime is considered serious bodily injury, which is a legal term that connotes all sorts of things. So if there’s a carjacking for example, if you’re parked at the convenience store gas station in Washington, DC and you’re walking out to the car and someone just gets in there and steals it and tells you, hey, don’t come near here, we’re taking your car, that’s a carjacking but it’s not going to be considered a violent crime.”

Jansen noted, “Most of them happen with either a violent pushing you or getting you out of (the car). This is one of your highest, most expensive assets and your way of transportation and then taking it from you. There’s a lot of psychological intimidation and threat minimally that goes along with most carjackings and of course, we know there’s shoves and pushes and pulls and people being thrown aside. It’s terrifying. It’s terrorism if you’re taking somebody’s highest, one of their most expensive assets away from them right at the moment you’re trying to use your car. I don’t know how that terroristic aspect of it doesn’t get counted as a violent crime.”

Barkdoll said, “Well, in some states it would. In Pennsylvania, for example, an attempt of serious bodily injury or placing you in fear of serious bodily injury also could connote what’s called an aggravated assault, but these national groups that are looking at the quote unquote, violent crime, you look into the stats, it’s murder. It is actual assaults where people did suffer serious bodily injury or death.”