Could Dave McCormick take the PA US Senate seat from Bob Casey?

October 6 – A Quinnipiac poll came out yesterday that showed Senator Bob Casey with a six point lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick for the US Senate seat in Pennsylvania. 

McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, ran for the seat in 2022, but ultimately lost to Mehmet Oz. 

With only having a six point difference this early in the campaign, could that be a sign that times might be changing? 

Attorney Clint Barkdoll said, “I don’t think this was a great result for Casey. This was the first horse race poll of a McCormick/Casey matchup in the general election next year. This was Quinnipiac, they’re a big reputable polling firm that does all sorts of polling. But think about this. Casey is up by six. McCormick just announced he’s running a couple of weeks ago. He doesn’t have anywhere near the name recognition that Casey does. We know that name is political dynasty in Pennsylvania and even though that six, it is outside of the margin of error, but if I’m McCormick’s camp, I’m feeling pretty good about that because to be within six points with 12, 13 months before the election, McCormick hasn’t even done any campaigning yet. I actually think it’s very favorable for McCormick.”

Overnight, Casey revealed that he raised more than $3 million in the third quarter for his reelection campaign. 

Barkdoll said, “That is a big number and he’s going to raise tens of millions of dollars. But remember, McCormick is very independently wealthy. So McCormick’s going to raise all kinds of money, too, but separate fundraising aside, he could bankroll this campaign himself. He has that sort of wealth. So I think Casey’s people are probably quite concerned about this poll.”

Pat Ryan of NewsTalk 103.7FM pointed out, “The other thing with Casey here, we can’t put our finger on anything of value that Bob Casey has done, major legislation. You scratch your head on this guy. He’s just a go along to get along, fern in the corner here. Then you put the anchor of that useful idiot, for this administration, John Fetterman, around his neck, you put the one-two punch of dopes in DC and I’m Casey right now, we’ve got problems. The amount of rollout on his press releases, all of a sudden that’s starting to tick up and ramp up as well. It’s embarrassing.”

Barkdoll added, “You’ll probably see over the next year, to the extent there are big ticket legislative issues, you’re going to see Casey tick more to the middle, maybe even to the right. That’s classic campaign strategy. The year of the campaign, he wants to appeal even more to moderates, maybe undecided voters, even some that would be on the right. On Fetterman, keep in mind, too, when anyone at this level is running for election, he’s going to have other statewide surrogates campaign for him. No doubt Josh Shapiro will be out campaigning for Casey. I don’t think you’re going to see much of John Fetterman campaigning for Casey. We know Fetterman’s condition. Fetterman, his profile has been raised again the last few weeks over that dress code issue in the Senate, but I don’t think he’s at a level that he’s going to be out on the campaign trail rallying support for Casey. So that kind of becomes a net neutral then, just like McCormick is going to be able to bring in outside surrogates, Fetterman’s probably going to be a nonfactor to the extent he’s not going to be able to campaign much for Casey.”

Ryan noted, “You see a lot of people distancing themselves away from Fetterman. Casey’s a suit and tie guy and he doesn’t want to be associated with a lot of things with Fetterman, the look and the sound and what Fetterman brings to the table. Casey would be well wise to go, you know what, John? Stay, rest. It’s very important that you sit in your hoodie and your flip flops and sit over there at the kids table.”